05/05/2025
If you work in investment banking recruitment, the first quarter may soon seem like a different country. As Ted Pick at Morgan Stanley observed on Friday, back in Q1 it looked like the investment banking cycle was beginning all over again. Banks in London, at least, appear to have tentatively begun hiring accordingly.
Recruitment firm Morgan McKinley says banking jobs advertised in London increased by 11% between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. There was some "early momentum" in hiring, says Morgan McKinley, which covers all financial services roles and not just those in investment banking divisions.
Some of that momentum is evinced by the sudden appearance of a new London-based head of equity capital markets (ECM) at Deutsche Bank. In a move surely concocted before the tariff-induced turmoil, Financial News reports that Deutsche Bank has poached Tom Swerling from Barclays as its new global head of ECM. Swerling isn't the only new hire on the books at the German bank: Deutsche is also currently on the lookout for a new London-based VP to cover the Nordic region, an analyst or associate to join its gaming, real estate and leisure team, and an associate or VP for infrastructure and utilities.
The implication is that Deutsche, at least, is mopping up banking talent in London. Last year, it recruited 115 new front office bankers and 30 MDs. CEO Christian Sewing already announced plans to cut jobs and costs in 2025, just not in the front office.
Will Deutsche keep hiring as Q2 progresses? It's not commenting. However, senior JPMorgan ECM bankers have been talking about "paralysis" in the IPO market. Pick at Morgan Stanley says existing M&A deals will be "deleted" if there's no progress by July or August.
For the moment, headhunters say existing job mandates at all banks appear to be going ahead, but that they're mostly about backfilling and upgrading. "There's a perpetual waiting game for the more exciting strategic projects," says Barney Mundell at M&A search firm Loxley Partners. Another headhunter, however, says there's some uncertainty whether his current mandates will ultimately be signed off: "The market is very nervy;" jobs could be pulled at the last minute.
Although Morgan McKinley says all London banking jobs were up 11% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March, it also says they were low compared to previous starts to the year. As the chart below shows, Morgan McKinley thinks there were 60% fewer financial services jobs in London in Q1 2025 than back in the halcyon days of Q1 2022.
There are already plenty of people interested in the jobs available. Morgan McKinley has stopped calculating the number of new jobseekers on the market, but with people coming out of HSBC and elsewhere, Mundell says there's no shortage of strong candidates. "There are a lot of good bankers out there who don't have roles," he observes. There could be even more soon.
As deals dry up, Swerling's Deutsche Bank jump itself may prove fortuitous. He left Barclays after the British bank hired a co-head of ECM from RBC. A paralysed market probably can't support two heads of a business.
Original Article: efinancialcareers
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